Is there a Winner in This Field?
an NIH special report!People are always calling elections horse races, but they never analyze them as if they were horse races. Since horse race handicappers have repeatedly shown themselves to be better judges of form and fitness than political commentators, we decided to have our handicapping correspondent, Forest Hill Phil, handicap the Liberal leadership race.September 27, 2006The entries for the Liberal Leadership Cup now appear to be final, so let’s have a look at the contenders. The first thing we note when we review the field of eight is a complete lack of back class – only one of these entries (Scott Brison) has ever competed at this level before, and then he couldn’t even keep up with the flashy but unsound David Orchard. In other words, the purse in this major stakes event will probably be going to an unknown quantity.
Our rank outsider is a maiden competing only in her second event. In her first, Martha Hall Findlay was beaten a nose by highly touted Belinda Stronach in a maiden event in Newmarket-Aurora. However, her connections then claimed the winner of that race and put Ms Findlay out to pasture. She’s probably in here just to prove that she belongs, and will be satisfied with any creditable finish. To her a creditable finish may include finishing way up the track. She’s in the New Improved Morning Line at 12 to 1, and at post time her odds are doubtless going to be much higher.
Wet behind the ears. Somewhat more experienced than Ms Findlay is Gerard Kennedy. He has three victories in races restricted to entrants from his province, including one in which he nabbed a provincial cabinet post. He shows promise, but his workouts suggest it will take him more time to reach his potential than he has to prepare for this race. Like Ms Findlay he’s probably in here to show he belongs, but because of his greater experience we’re assigning him lower odds of 7 to 1.
Too much baggage. A proven provincial champion, Bob Rae is now aiming at a national prize. However, he’ll be carrying the most weight (Ontario) in this contest, and he could find himself panting in the home stretch as other contenders fly by him. Still, he’s won races he wasn’t supposed to before, so we’re putting him in the morning line at 6 to 1.
Foreign invader. Highly regarded second-time starter Michael Ignatieff has a win in his only race to date, but over a soft field carefully selected by his connections. Those connections seem to think they’ve found another soft field, but when he heads into the home stretch against some of the experienced runners he’s up against here he may be surprised by some of the things they know about winning – and he doesn’t. Odds: 6 to 1.
Famous long ago. Finally we’ve reached an entrant who’s taken a major federal prize. Two-time winner Ken Dryden actually took a cabinet post with his first win. Still, like Mr. Ignatieff, he's only won against specially selected soft fields, and he probably needs a few more spins around the track before we can tell if he’s going to mature into a proven winner. Odds: 6 to 1.
And now we turn to the class of the field, if you’ll allow me to use that term a bit loosely. Each of the remaining competitors is a proven winner federally, although they still lack the credentials usually considered necessary to win a race at the level of the current contest.
Say it ain’t so. Dogged by accusations about the legality of some of his preparations for this race, Joe Volpe still has more wins to his credit (6) than any other entrant. However, he also has a slightly less distinguished record than the remaining competitors, and on the day some of his delegates may not have the vitality necessary to bring him home in front. Odds: 9 to 2.
Flying Scottsman. He’s the only competitor to have raced at this level before, but in his one attempt on this elevated plane Scott Brison was well beaten, by a competitor who later declined a chance to race against current national champ Stephen Harper. Still, he’s got a range of ministerial experience, and we feel he deserves to be second favourite at 3 to 1.
Mr. Canada. Only one competitor seems to have been pointed to this race, and that is Stéphane Dion. Although he’s never won one of the big cabinet posts, his extensive experience with issues of national unity is good preparation for national leadership. Despite some lacklustre workouts we’re installing him as morning line favourite at 5 to 2.
Conclusion. Mr. Dion deserves to be the favourite, but in a field with no outstanding form pick the probability of an upset is high. We're confident, though, that whoever wins this event is going to be defending his or her championship very shortly, against a much stronger field. This year's instalment of the Cup may simply be intended to offer one of the party faithful the chance to fatten his or her pension. If it is, Mr. Brison and Mr. Rae will be hard pressed to win.
And then, of course, some races are fixed.
Is There a Winner in This Field? © John FitzGerald, 2006
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